According to the statistics of energytrend, more than 80% of the polysilicon at the upstream end of the solar industry is processed into silicon wafers in China. Therefore, the demand for polysilicon in China has been high, and the supply is provided through two major sources: overseas import and domestic production. Chinese manufacturers continue to import polycrystalline silicon from overseas, and the import volume in 2016 has broken through a record high again; domestic manufacturers also have large-scale production expansion actions, which are expected to be in place in the third quarter of this year.

However, as China's overall photovoltaic market in 2017 is expected to decline compared with that in 2016, the demand for polysilicon is likely to decrease, resulting in oversupply of polycrystalline silicon in China, and then the price of polycrystalline silicon will fall again.

South Korea's import volume has reached a new high, and both sides bring uncertainty

According to the statistics of silicon industry branch of China Nonferrous Metals Association, China's four major regions of polysilicon import in 2016 were South Korea, Germany, the United States and Taiwan, with a total import volume of 124940 tons, accounting for nearly 90% of the total polysilicon import volume, setting a record high. Among them, South Korea is the largest importer, accounting for 49.7% of the total import volume, reaching 70090 tons. In terms of the average import price, the average import price in 2016 was US $16.45 per kg, down 8.2% compared with the same period in 2015.

Due to the rebound of market demand in November and the possible antidumping review of China's polysilicon sacrifice to South Korea, November 2016 was the peak of polysilicon imports from South Korea to China, reaching 8366 tons, accounting for more than 60% of the polysilicon import proportion in that month.

In the United States, since July 2015, under the influence of China's double anti tax and suspension of processing trade measures, the export of polysilicon from the United States to China has been blocked, resulting in a sharp decrease in polysilicon imports from the United States, with the minimum import volume falling to 0.1%; however, since November 2016, the Sino US trade relationship has changed, and the import volume has increased to 9.8% in December, with a monthly growth rate of 93.3%. In 2016, China imported 5653 tons of polysilicon from the United States, 90.4% of which was imported through the processing trade manual.

On the whole, the anti-dumping duty proposed by China to South Korea is the biggest variable of polysilicon trade, which will directly affect the amount of polysilicon in China, or impact China's high-efficiency monocrystalline silicon production capacity in the future. Because the high-quality polycrystalline silicon produced by OCI is one of the main raw materials for monocrystalline silicon wafers, China's single crystal production capacity may be affected in the future if it is hindered by high tariffs